THE COST · THE MEASURED EXPOSURE

One gap at the start.A bill that lands all year.

Biology showed the collision. Here is what the cascade takes from the herd — line by line, in pounds, each figure drawn from published research and priced at UK milk value.

Six ways the gap costs you.

Every direction the cascade runs has its own measured cost. These are the biggest, each anchored to the evidence.

£Milk forgoneA lower transition intake pulls the whole-lactation curve down. At a 10%+ floor that is 800+ L per cow — the single largest line.DMI→yield anchor T2-EU-0096 · @ AHDB ~£0.36/L (assumption)
£Metabolic & clinical diseaseSubclinical ketosis, displaced abomasum, metritis, mastitis — treatment, dumped milk, and lost days.Ketosis burden T2-EU-0107
£Immune load & BRDThe energy-short, inflamed cow is more vulnerable — respiratory disease and secondary infection carry their own bill.Immune load T2-EU-0129 · T2-EU-0138
£Delayed breeding-backLater cyclicity and conception stretch the calving interval — every extra open day has a cost.Fertility T2-EU-0062 · 0066 · 0071 · 0072
£Involuntary cullingCows that never recover leave early — replacement cost, plus the genetic potential that leaves with them.Longevity T2-EU-0084
£Emissions intensityA lower-yielding, shorter-lived cow carries a higher methane intensity per litre — an emerging cost as policy tightens.Emissions T2-EU-0096 · T2-EU-0098

Add it up, and the receipt reads:£414,000+ per 1,000 cows, every year.

THE TRANSITION-PERIOD BILL per 1,000 cows · per year Milk forgone (10%+ floor) £288,000+ Metabolic & clinical disease included Immune load & BRD included Delayed breeding-back included Involuntary culling included Emissions intensity emerging TOTAL EXPOSURE £414,000+

DMI-Impact-calculated composite (narrative, not a single sourced figure). Milk-forgone floor: 800+ L/cow × ~£0.36/L (AHDB, assumption stated) = £288+/cow = £288,000+/1,000 cows/yr. Commercial trial floor 10%+ is a DMI Impact measurement, not peer-reviewed.

Hundreds of thousands lost per herd. Billions spent chasing it.

That £414k is just your herd. Across the industry, the response is measured in billions every year — feed, equipment, veterinary care, pharmaceuticals, robotics, genetics — most of it aimed at the symptoms of this one window.

£414k+ lost per 1,000 cows, every year the problem, per herd → £ billions spent every year chasing the symptoms feed · equipment · vets · pharma · robots · genetics And now the newest money is voting too. Hundreds of millions in fresh venture capital have entered cow wearables and precision-livestock tech — a bet that the individual cow is finally worth acting on. The market has already voted twice: the problem is real, and it is worth solving.

Every pound above is an “opportunity gap” — a cost that exists only because, until now, intake in transition was treated as something you could measure but not change.

Go Deeper

See how the bill is built.

The page gives you the total. These show you the workings — how each line is derived, and a tool to run it on your own numbers.

The derivation The £414k+ exposure, line by line Every cost line on this page, opened up: the source study, the assumption, the arithmetic, and the per-1,000-cow result. Milk value shown at AHDB ~£0.36/L with the assumption stated. Built so a vet, nutritionist or grant evaluator can check each figure against the evidence. Coming soon
The tool NEB Cost Calculator Put in your herd size, milk price and freshening rate; see your own transition-period exposure, and what a 10%+ recovery would be worth. Interactive — coming soon. Coming soon

That is the cost as it stands. Now the part that changes it.

See the solution →