Capitals = Areas of Future Potential Study
The cost
Every bill starts with the same cow: one who can’t eat enough.
Negative Energy Balance is the catalyst. When she drops her feed in the weeks after calving, the costs follow as a cascade. This page prices what can be priced, per 1,000 cows a year, names what can’t, and shows every calculation.
Recorded on working US dairies, 2014–2017. Captions cover the narration and the founder.
The cascade
She drops her feed, and the cascade begins.
It is not one cost. Each problem in the fresh pen raises the odds of the next, and the bills land across the whole lactation, and beyond it.
UK Herd Life
28%
average UK culling rate, with cows leaving after 3.6 lactations
NMR 2023, via Macmillan 2024 · UK
Replacing her
£1,819
to rear a heifer to calving, taking 1.5 lactations to repay
Boulton et al. 2017 · UK
Before the diagnosis
2–4 weeks
Milk yield starts to fall before Ketosis is diagnosed
Rajala-Schultz et al. 1999 · Finland
Over the lactation
251 kg
305-day milk loss per case of subclinical Ketosis
Raboisson et al. 2014 · France
She pays twice
Condition she spends now is bought back later, at a premium.
Losing half a condition score in the first 60 days after calving is typical. What she takes off her own back in the fresh pen has to go back on later in the lactation, from feed, and putting it back takes more feed energy than the score held.
385 Mcal × 4.184 MJ/Mcal = 1,611 MJ · 520 Mcal × 4.184 = 2,176 MJ · 520 ÷ 385 = 1.35 → 35% more
NASEM 2021 · USA (one condition score, 650 kg cow)
Condition and Fertility
+42.8%
higher pregnancy rate for each additional unit of Body Condition score at calving
The same meta-analysis found +16.8% per unit at the lowest point (nadir).
Bédère et al. 2018 · France
The 6 bills · per 1,000 cows per year
The biggest bill is the last to arrive.
In the order a herd pays them: treatment first, then the condition she has to put back, the days before she is back in calf, the cows that leave early, the Emissions per litre, and full-lactation lost Milk last. Milk, like Body Condition and Fertility, is a lagging sign of how well she recovered from calving. 4 bills priced, 2 counted in their own units; every pound figure is a DMI Impact calculation, written out in full.
Total exposure
£339,497
per 1,000 cows per year
£8,253 + £21,614 + £7,125 + £302,505 = £339,497
Up to £521,000 at the measured ceiling, with lost Milk at 16%:
£36,992 + £484,008 = £521,000
Per 1,000 cows per year · milk at £0.35/L (Defra · UK, July 2026: the lowest published month of Q3) · DMI Impact calculation, assumptions stated
About £533 million a year across Great Britain’s 1.57 million milking cows, up to £818 million at the ceiling.
1,570 × £339,497 = £533,010,290 · at the 16% ceiling: 1,570 × £521,000 = £817,970,000
DMI Impact calculation
Check the maths
- Great Britain’s milking herd: 1,570,000 cows (AHDB, 1 July 2026). In blocks of 1,000 cows, that is 1,570.
- What the transition costs per 1,000 cows a year (the 6 bills, in the order a herd pays them):
- Disease, treatment only: Ketosis 117 cases × €28.50 × £0.85/€ = £2,834, plus metritis 69 cases × $99.41 × £0.79/$ = £5,419, so £8,253. Sources: Macrae 2019 · UK; USDA NAHMS 2018 · USA; Steeneveld 2020 · Netherlands; Liang 2013 · USA; exchange rates are DMI Impact assumptions.
- Body Condition: 1,000 cows × 0.5 of a score × 135 Mcal = 67,500 Mcal ME, the energy in 63,606 kg of milk, ÷ 1.03 kg/L × £0.35/L = £21,614. Sources: NASEM 2021 · USA, p.34; 1.03 kg/L is a DMI Impact assumption.
- Fertility (16 to 22 days, Raboisson 2014 · France) is counted in days, not priced.
- Early culling: 1,000 cows × 1% extra culls × £712.50 = £7,125. Sources: Farmers Weekly 2024 · UK; 1% is a DMI Impact assumption.
- Emissions (+2.3% CO2e per tonne of milk per case, Mostert 2018 · Netherlands) are counted in their own units, not priced.
- Lost Milk, last to show: 1,000 cows × 8,643 L × 10% × £0.35/L = £302,505. At 16%: £484,008. Sources: Defra 2026 · UK; milk at £0.35/L (Defra · UK, July 2026: the lowest published month of Q3).
- Total: £8,253 + £21,614 + £7,125 + £302,505 = £339,497. With lost Milk at 16%: £36,992 + £484,008 = £521,000.
- Across Great Britain: 1,570 × £339,497 = £533,010,290, about £533 million a year. At the ceiling: 1,570 × £521,000 = £817,970,000, up to £818 million.
- What this assumes: the cost per 1,000 cows applies across every GB milking cow. The lost Milk bill rests on the +10% floor and +16% ceiling measured on 6 US dairies. That is commercial observation, not peer-reviewed: a percentage increase is anecdotal until scientific studies verify the correlation and the causation.
DMI Impact calculation (register row C-14), from register rows C-01 and C-05 to C-09.
A percentage increase is anecdotal until scientific studies verify the correlation and the causation.
What the total leaves out
The total is a floor, not the whole bill.
Three costs sit outside the sum: problems that compound, Fertility counted in days, and Emissions counted per litre.
Compounding
Several problems in one cow cost more than the same problems apart
The total above prices each bill on its own, so it leaves this out.
Wöckel et al. 2026 · Germany
Fertility
Counted in days, not pounds
Calving to first service was 8 days longer, and calving to conception 16 to 22 days longer, in cows with subclinical Ketosis.
Raboisson et al. 2014 · France
Research note · Emissions per litre
Health and Emissions intensity move together
Each case of subclinical Ketosis adds 2.3% to the CO2e per tonne of milk. And every lactation a cow completes spreads the Emissions of her rearing over more litres: cows with 5 to 8 lactations could have up to 40% lower emission intensity than cows that leave after their first.
Mostert 2018 · Netherlands · von Soosten et al. 2020 · Germany
The evidence behind this page · 15 sources
Every figure on this page traces to a named source we hold in full. Pound figures are DMI Impact calculations from those sources, written out beside each bill. The +10% and +16% are DMI Impact commercial observation, not peer-reviewed, and anecdotal until scientific studies verify the correlation and the causation.
- Defra (2026) Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2025 (average lactation 8,643 L) · UK · gov.uk
- Defra (2026) United Kingdom milk prices and composition of milk, notice for August 2026 (July 2026: 35 ppl) · UK · gov.uk
- National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2021) Nutrient Requirements of Dairy Cattle, 8th revised edition, p.34 · USA · nationalacademies.org
- Macrae AI et al. (2019) Prevalence of excessive negative energy balance in commercial United Kingdom dairy herds · UK
- USDA APHIS NAHMS (2018) Dairy 2014, Report 3: Health and Management Practices on U.S. Dairy Operations · USA · aphis.usda.gov
- Steeneveld W et al. (2020) Estimating the combined costs of clinical and subclinical ketosis in dairy cows. PLoS ONE · Netherlands · doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230448
- Liang D (2013) Estimating the economic losses from diseases and extended days open with a farm-level stochastic model. MSc thesis · USA
- Raboisson D, Mounié M, Maigné E (2014) Diseases, reproductive performance, and changes in milk production associated with subclinical ketosis in dairy cows. J Dairy Sci · France · doi.org/10.3168/jds.2014-8237
- Mostert PF (2018) The impact of diseases in dairy cows on greenhouse gas emissions and economic performance · Netherlands · doi.org/10.18174/445487
- Macmillan S (2024) Advice on calculating cull cow costs accurately. Farmers Weekly (cites NMR 2023) · UK · fwi.co.uk
- Wöckel A et al. (2026) Economics of production diseases at the individual animal level in German dairy farms. Dairy · Germany · doi.org/10.3390/dairy7020026
- Rajala-Schultz PJ, Gröhn YT, McCulloch CE (1999) Effects of milk fever, ketosis, and lameness on milk yield in dairy cows. J Dairy Sci · Finland · doi.org/10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(99)75235-5
- Boulton AC, Rushton J, Wathes DC (2017) An empirical analysis of the cost of rearing dairy heifers from birth to first calving. Animal · UK · doi.org/10.1017/S1751731117000064
- Bédère N et al. (2018) Meta-analysis of the relationships between reproduction, milk yield and body condition score in dairy cows. Livestock Science · France · doi.org/10.1016/j.livsci.2018.01.017
- von Soosten D, Meyer U, Flachowsky G, Dänicke S (2020) Dairy cow health and greenhouse gas emission intensity. Dairy · Germany · doi.org/10.3390/dairy1010003
Next · The science, 3 of 4
What can you do about it, without changing your ration, your buildings or your genetics?
One thing about her day changes. The 4 decisions stay yours.
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